Headline
Altcoin market under pressure as broader trend stays weak, short-term relief rally possible but risk still dominates
The Data
This analysis is based on the TOTAL2ES chart. This chart represents the total market value of all cryptocurrencies except Bitcoin and with stablecoins removed. In simple terms, it shows how the core altcoin market is performing without Bitcoin and without money sitting on the sidelines. This makes it one of the best views of true risk appetite in crypto.
Right now, the overall direction of this market is still pointing down. Price is trading below its fair value reference, which tells us sellers are in control. The broader trend remains negative, meaning rallies should still be treated with caution.
On the positive side, there is fresh buying interest showing up. This suggests that selling pressure is slowing and some investors are starting to step back in. However, this buying has not yet been strong enough to flip the larger trend. Momentum is mixed, not strongly bullish or strongly bearish, which often leads to choppy price action.
There is also a clear warning sign that the recent bounce may be running out of steam. Price made a higher push while underlying strength failed to confirm it. This often appears before another pullback.
Trading activity is average, not showing panic selling but also not showing aggressive accumulation. Trend strength is moderate, meaning the move down is established but not accelerating.
Current estimated TOTAL2ES market value is around 900 Billion USD.
Key levels to watch:
Major support sits near 820 Billion USD.
A move there would represent roughly a -9% decline from current levels.
If that level breaks, the next downside target is near 750 Billion USD.
That would be a total drop of about -17%.
On the upside, the first major resistance is near 970 Billion USD.
Reaching that level would be about a +8% move.
A stronger recovery target sits around 1.05 Trillion USD.
That would be roughly a +17% move, but only likely if the overall trend flips.
Impact on Major Cryptocurrencies
If the market continues lower:
SUI is likely to remain very volatile and could underperform due to its high risk profile.
SOL may hold better than smaller coins but would still struggle to sustain rallies.
ETH would likely act as a relative safe haven but could drift lower with the market.
DOGE tends to suffer most during weak conditions and could see sharper pullbacks.
LINK may outperform slightly but upside will be capped while the market is weak.
HYPE, being highly speculative, would be very sensitive and could see fast drops if support breaks.
If the market stabilizes and moves sideways:
ETH and LINK would likely be the first to show strength, while SOL could follow. Meme and high-risk coins would still lag.
Verdict
WAIT
The broader altcoin market is still in a downtrend despite early signs of buying interest. Until TOTAL2ES reclaims key resistance near 970 Billion USD and holds above it, the risk of another leg down remains high. Cautious positioning and patience are advised before committing to new long-term buys.